The European Parliament published its first seat projections for the European elections, according to which “the next hemicycle would reflect a more fragmented political landscape than ever.”
The press kit provides full information on the national parties, their names, political affiliation on European level, their results at the last European and national elections as well as their standing in all voting intention polls collected.
In Hungary’s case the EP used three surveys by Publicus, Szazadveg Foundation and Zavecz Research, all conducted in January. According to the average of these national polls, the ruling Fidesz-KDNP coalition can get 49.3 % (13 mandates), conservative Jobbik 15.5 % (4 mandates), the coalition of the Socialists (MSZP) and the small Dialogue (Parbeszed) party 13.3% (3 mandates), and the left-wing liberal Democratic Coalition (DK) 7.2 % (1 mandate).
Young liberal Momentum might have one seat with their 5%, but green LMP (which has currently 1 MEP in the Greens/EFA group) is likely to lose its seat with only 4.5% of the votes. Neither the satirical Two-tailed Dog Party (MKKP) with their 3.7%, nor the extreme-right Our Homeland (Mi Hazank – 1.2%) has a change to get a seat.
So far, Fidesz-KDNP MEPs have been members of the European People’s Party (EPP), the Socialists and the DK belonged to the S&D group, while Jobbik MEPs have been non-attached.
Currently Fidesz has 12 MEPs, MSZP 2, Jobbik 3 (though two of them have left the party since 2014), DK 2, LMP 1 and Parbeszed (which ran in the elections separately in 2014) 1.
Source: Hungary Journal